Note: I started this post way back when the NCAA men's basketball tournament was going on, but didn't finish it until now.
Since the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament has moved to 64 teams, a 16 seed as never upset a 1 seed. You might be tempted to say that the probability of such an event must be 0 then. But we know better than that.
In this post, I am interested in looking at different ways of estimating how the odds of winning a game change as the difference between seeds increases.